This publication reports on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) analysis of infrastructure requirements to support projected road and rail travel through 2050, as identified in the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 (ETP 2012), using the IEA Mobility Model (MoMo). Infrastructure requirements and costs have been added to the general cost accounting system outlined and presented in ETP 2012. This publication provides additional details on the results and analytical approach.
Over the next four decades, global passenger and freight travel is expected to double over 2010 levels. Growth in global mobility will have consequences beyond energy and emissions. The infrastructure additions estimated in this analysis will carry significant costs. Unsurprisingly, the largest expected infrastructural additions will be in rapidly emerging economies, such as China and India. Due to faster motorisation and travel growth rates, non‐OECD expenditures on land transport infrastructure are expected to surpass OECD levels by 2030. If countries pursue travel “avoid and shift” policies, as recommended in ETP 2012, global transport infrastructure requirements could be reduced considerably. Despite increases in expenditures on rail, HSR and BRT infrastructure in the 2DS, cumulative global land transport infrastructure spending decreases by nearly USD 20 trillion over 4DS estimates. Cost estimates presented in the 2DS do not include other transport investments related to shifts to more sustainable transport (e.g. purchases of additional trains and BRT buses). The potential shift of travel to more sustainable modes in the ETP 2012 2DS could result in significant estimated savings on infrastructure investments and maintenance costs.